What Are HCM Scenarios
HCM scenarios are named collections of input assumptions that define how distributed energy resources (DER) and demand growth will be distributed across the network in future years.
Why Scenarios Matter
Scenarios enable "what-if" analysis by allowing network operators to compare different DER adoption trajectories, test various technology mixes, and assess network constraints under different growth patterns. Rather than planning for a single predicted future, operators can explore multiple plausible futures and design networks that perform well across various conditions.
Data Architecture
HCM scenarios follow a hierarchical data structure that flows from detailed behavioral patterns up to high-level scenario definitions:
Profiles: Individual Behavior Patterns
At the foundation are profiles - time-series data that capture how different DER technologies behave:
- PV Profiles define solar generation patterns with technical specifications like panel tilt, orientation, and inverter sizing
- EV Profiles capture charging patterns that vary by vehicle class, charger type, and usage patterns
- BESS Profiles model battery charge/discharge cycles with efficiency characteristics and control strategies
Each profile contains normalized power arrays (typically 17,520 intervals representing 30-minute data for a year) plus technical metadata about phases, capacity, and efficiency.
Allocations: Grouping with Rules
Allocations group multiple profiles for each DER type and define the rules for how they get distributed across the network:
- Probability weighting allows mixing different profile configurations (e.g., 60% of installations use 5kW single-phase systems, 40% use 10kW three-phase systems)
- Locking mechanisms control whether profiles can be used flexibly or must match specific years or feeders
- Mathematical constraints ensure probability weights sum to 1.0 per feeder for valid distributions
Forecasts: Capacity by Location and Time
Forecasts specify how much DER capacity will be installed where and when:
- PV Forecasts define megawatts of solar capacity by network area and year
- EV Forecasts specify numbers of electric vehicles by class and location
- BESS Forecasts set energy storage targets in megawatt-hours
- Demand Forecasts project background load growth with uncertainty levels
Forecasts can be specified at different network hierarchy levels, from individual feeders up to entire regions.
Scenario Configuration: Mix and Match
Scenario configurations are where operators mix and match the building blocks above to create specific futures:
- Each scenario references specific allocation strategies for each DER type
- Scenarios can combine different forecast assumptions (high solar + low batteries, moderate EVs + high demand growth)
- Different scenarios can use different network aggregation levels and uncertainty assumptions
Forecast Network Levels
There are differnt hierarchical network levels available for capacity forecasting:
Currently supported levels are:
| Level | Description | Typical Use |
|---|---|---|
| FEEDER | Distribution feeder level | Standard planning studies |
Other levels such as LV_FEEDER, SUBSTATION, ZONE, and REGION may be supported in future releases.
Profile Allocation Concepts
Profile allocation determines how behavioral patterns get distributed across network locations. Two key mechanisms control this distribution:
Probability Weighting enables realistic technology diversity. Instead of assuming all solar installations behave identically, allocations can specify that 60% follow one behavioral pattern while 40% follow another, representing different system sizes, orientations, or control strategies.
Locking Mechanisms control allocation flexibility:
- Year locking restricts profiles to specific time periods, useful for modeling technology evolution
- Feeder locking ensures location-specific characteristics are preserved, important for geographic differences
These mechanisms allow scenarios to balance computational efficiency with realistic representation of technology diversity across time and space.
Scenario Execution
Scenarios run independently within work packages.
For step-by-step guidance on configuring scenarios, see the How to Configure HCM Scenarios guide.
Never name a custom scenario base. The system automatically includes a hardcoded base scenario representing current network conditions without additional DER uptake or demand changes. Naming your own scenario base will cause conflicts with this system baseline.
The base scenario can be called in the SYF config during work package configuration without needing to define it in the scenario_configuration table.